Fantasy Football is a well known virtual game where you create your own team of real players from the NFL. These players gain points based on their statistical performances during a given week. As of writing this, the NFL is in week four and this article will describe and explain three potential “sleeper” players. A “sleeper” player is one who is either significantly undervalued for their performance or someone who has a strong likelihood of having significant improvement throughout the current season.
Player 1: Nico Collins
Nico Collins is a third year wide receiver who plays for the Houston Texans. Through 4 weeks, he appears to be having a breakout year as he has already 428 yards and 3 touchdowns. This figure could be significant as players who accomplished this feat through the first 4 weeks of the season have all finished at least in the top 12 of their position by the end of the season. This success is likely due to his new rookie quarterback, C.J. Stroud. Stroud is performing phenomenally despite having only one starter on his offensive line. When the Texans offensive line returns to fully healthy, Stroud will be able to have even more success, which should translate to Collins’ fantasy production. The reason Collins is on this list is because he should be valued even higher than he currently is.
Player 2: Puka Nacua
Puka Nacua is a fifth round rookie wide receiver who plays for the Los Angeles Rams. Puka might be one of the most unlikely stories of the year. Somehow, he has managed to pull off 39 catches for 501 yards in the first four games of his career, despite no one knowing who he is. Part of this is due to Rams star wide receiver Cooper Kupp being injured so far this year. As Kupp intends to return soon, many people seem to think Nacua’s production will fall off. While this is partially true, he will still continue to put up good stats. Part of the reason people think he will regress is because people believe he is playing the exact role that Cooper Kupp normally plays. However, this is not true. Nacua plays a role more similar to former Rams wide receiver Robert Woods. When Woods and Kupp were on Rams, both players were able to have over 1,000 receiving yards in the same season. This scenario is very likely to happen, which means Nacua would still be a quality player and worth acquiring.
Player 3: Josh Downs
Josh Downs is a third round rookie wide receiver who plays for the Indianapolis Colts. Through 5 games, Downs has amassed 23 catches for 255 yards. While these aren’t the most impressive numbers, many factors indicate that Downs could be a valuable player as the NFL season progresses. First, Colts starting quarterback Anthony Richardson was placed on the injury reserve, meaning the earliest he can return to playing is week 11 in the season. While losing your starting quarterback is normally a bad thing, the Colts backup quarterback is Gardner Minshew, who is a very formidable player. In fact, in weeks 2,3, and 5, Minshew was the Colts quarterback due to Anthony Richardsons various injuries that he has suffered already. In these games, Downs has had 7.7, 13.7, and 15.7 points. On the other hand, Downs only had 6.0 and 5.4 points in games Richardson has started in. Not only does Downs produce better games with Misnhew as his quarterback, he also is improving as a player. In week 5, Downs’ best performance of the year, he averaged 5.19 yards of separation per route run. For reference, the league average us 2.94 yards per game, so this is a very impressive stat. Lastly, Downs target share with Minshew has been 24.1%. This means that about a quarter of Minshew’’s attempted passes are thrown to Downs, which is likely to lead to quality fantasy production. As of this moment, Downs should be a cheap player to acquire who can develop into a potential starter for fantasy teams.
Player 4: Zay Flowers
Zay Flowers is a first round rookie receiver who plays for the Baltimore Ravens. Through 5 weeks, Flowers has 29 catches for 317 yards. Flowers has averaged 8 targets a game, which is a fantastic number for fantasy purposes. The reason Flowers is on this list is because there is still significant room for growth. For example, in week 5, Flowers had 5 catches for 73 yards on 11 targets. During this game, Flowers dropped at least 3 passes, which if caught, would have significantly increased his stat line. These drops were likely a blip as prior to this game, Flowers had not recorded a single drop. The most exciting thing about Flowers is that he is very likely to have positive touchdown regression. Despite having 40 targets, Flowers hasn’t recorded a touchdown yet. However, it is very unlikely that this streak will continue if he maintains the same volume he is currently receiving. Currently, Flowers isn’t a very expensive receiver to acquire, while he should be valued as a low end WR2 who will most likely finish the season as a top 24 receiver.
Player 5: Logan Thomas
Logan Thomas is the 32 year old starting tight end on the Washington Commanders. In fantasy football, the tight end position is quite bleak outside of the top few guys. Logan Thomas doesn’t break this mold, but he’s an extremely cheap player who is definitely serviceable at his position. Through the 4 weeks that he has played, he has 18 catches for 183 yards alongside 2 touchdowns. This ends up averaging to 11.6 fantasy points per game, which is respectable for the value he holds. In his most recent games, he had a season high 20.7 fantasy points. Each game, he has proven to be a reliable target for the young Commanders quarterback Sam Howell. This makes him a safe tight end for fantasy football if you are in need of one. Best of all, Thomas should be extremely cheap or on waivers, so he will be easy to acquire
