Some people count steps, others count calories and caffeine intake- I count movies. In 2024 I watched 57 movies sprawling from blockbusters, to indie darlings. As a self-proclaimed cinephile award season is my Super Bowl, and with the Oscars around the corner it’s time to dissect the nominees, celebrate the snubs, and ask the age-old question: did the academy finally get it right? (Spoiler alert: NO!)

There are roughly 13 major films dominating this year’s Oscar race, and despite my self-proclaimed expertise, I, unfortunately, don’t have infinite time, money, or streaming subscriptions to catch them all. Notable movies I have yet to see include Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, I’m Still Here, and Dune: Part Two. So if you think any of these deserve an award—whether in a category I cover or not—take my picks with a grain of salt. And feel free to let me know your thoughts in the comments.

Also, I’ll only be giving my picks for the night’s “big” awards. While our friends in sound, makeup, and other technical categories are the glue that holds these films together, I won’t be making predictions for every award.

Now, without further ado, let’s get into it.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:

Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Pick: Kieran Culkin

Prediction: Kieran Culkin

This is, unfortunately, my only opportunity to talk about Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain, which I consider the biggest Best Picture snub of the year. However, the real standout in the film is Kieran Culkin’s performance as Benji, a high-energy, well-meaning screw-up who serves as both a comedic foil and emotional counterweight to Jesse Eisenberg’s David. Culkin masterfully balances humor, vulnerability, anger, and grief, often switching between emotions on a dime. It’s a performance that feels lived-in and deeply affecting, and it should earn him his first Oscar win.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Pick: Ariana Grande

Prediction: Zoe Saldaña

I’ll be honest—when my sister dragged me to Wicked, I didn’t expect to walk out with any Oscar predictions. In fact, I actively protested Ariana Grande’s casting, convinced that a pop star in the role would undermine the emotional weight of the story. But from the very first scene, as she projected Glinda’s immense sadness and guilt beneath a carefully crafted mask of false apathy, I knew I was about to eat my words. Grande blew me away. Her emotional depth was staggering, her musical theater experience was undeniable, and to top it all off, she got the most laughs out of me. She’s my pick for Best Supporting Actress, but I have a feeling she’ll be snubbed. While I don’t have the time (or expertise) to fully unpack the Emilia Pérez controversy, I will say that Zoë Saldaña is easily the best part of a below-par movie. She does everything she can with a shaky script, and she shines particularly in the musical numbers. If she wins, as I predict she will, I won’t be totally up in arms.

Actress in a Leading Role:

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Pick: Mikey Madison, Anora

Prediction: Demi Moore, The Substance 

As someone who had always heard Sean Baker’s name mentioned among the best directors working today, I felt a bit ashamed that I had never seen one of his films. So when Anora started generating awards buzz, I rented it knowing very little about it. Let’s just say I’m very glad I didn’t accidentally suggest it for family movie night. Not because it’s bad—quite the opposite. Anora was an absolute blast, and that’s largely due to Mikey Madison’s powerhouse performance in the title role. What surprised me most was just how funny both the film and Madison’s performance were, especially in the scene where the Russians first come for her and Vanya. Much like Kieran Culkin, Madison walks a tightrope, masterfully balancing humor and seduction with distress, insecurity, and naivety, crafting a nuanced and beautifully flawed character. At the same time, her performance elevates Anora beyond just an entertaining film, making a larger statement about sex work and class.  Despite all this, I doubt the Academy will give Madison the award. Instead, I have a feeling Demi Moore might take the title for her chilling performance in The Substance, a role that has completely revitalized her career—and for good reason. Outside of Madison, Moore easily delivers one of the best performances of the year. Either win would be well deserved.

The Brutalist and all the awards it should win

The Brutalist is one of those special movies that you only experience once but need to relive to truly grasp its significance. It’s the next great American epic in so many ways, which is ironic given its bleak message about how the American Dream is, in reality, the American Myth. This level of praise I do not award to just any movie but my appreciation goes beyond admiration, for my money the last three awards—Best Actor in a Leading Role, Best Director, and Best Picture—should all go to it.  

There’s not much that can be said about Adrien Brody’s performance that hasn’t already been said. Much like his work in The Pianist, Brody masterfully dissects the psyche of a Holocaust survivor, but this time, he adds another layer—one of ambition, class struggle, and inevitable disillusionment. His character arrives in America not just to survive, but to achieve, to carve out a place for himself in a world that only tolerates him. What makes Brody’s performance so riveting is how seamlessly he shifts between defiance and despair. He begins with determination, convinced that his struggles will be worth it in the end, only to unravel as he realizes that the destination he dreamed of is nothing like what he imagined. His quiet moments brim with unspoken yearning and exhaustion, while his eruptions of frustration and heartbreak expose the depth of his disillusionment.

Brady Corbet’s directing is masterful, often making you feel as if you’re walking in the characters’ shoes, such as in the opening scene on the boat, which climaxes with an upside-down shot of the Statue of Liberty. But Corbet’s direction doesn’t stop there—he immerses you in the film’s descent, making you feel as if you’re sinking into the very depths of hell, as he does in the heartbreaking mine scene in Italy. For someone who was a relative unknown to me, I was absolutely speechless throughout the entirety of the film. 

The Brutalist has so much to say about class, immigration, survival, love, and humanity that it feels like more than just a movie; it feels like an entirely lived experience. From the moment the film begins, it pulls you into a world of stark contrasts, where dreams and disillusionment coexist, and where the pursuit of something better often leads to a brutal reckoning. As you journey through the struggles of its protagonist—an immigrant trying to carve out a life in a land that only tolerates him—you are not merely observing, but participating in his pain, his hope, and his eventual unraveling.

By the time you leave the 3-and-a-half-hour epic, you don’t just feel like you’ve watched a film; you feel as though you’ve walked through a life. Corbet doesn’t allow you to remain detached from the emotional turmoil, the gritty realities of class division, or the intense, sometimes contradictory, nature of love and survival. The characters are so vividly real, and their experiences so immersive, that you are left grappling with the weight of it all. It’s not just a story about a man’s struggle—it’s a story that encompasses the struggles of anyone who’s ever faced the brutal intersection of ambition, identity, and societal expectations. The emotional impact lingers long after the credits roll as if you’ve lived it yourself.